Friday, September 11, 2009

Patrick's Platinum Plays

I went 2-1 last weekend, but just started this blog this week so I did not get a chance to post my picks from last week. If you don't believe me, I don't care.
YTD: 2-1

On to this weekend's games..........

USC @ Ohio State (+7)
OK, here is the killer stat: USC is 10-1 against the spread against the Big 10 in their last 11 games. To make it even worse, Ohio State is 1-7 against the spread in the last 8 home games. Easy pick, right? Wrong
Throw those out the window for this one. USC has not started a true Freshman QB in their last 11 against the Big 10. I know, I know, Matt Barkley is the next coming, etc, but he is a Freshman! True Freshman QB's do not win games like this. Ohio State's last 8 home games have not been at night on this stage, either.
Ohio State struggled last week against Navy, but Tressel and Company played it close to the vest. You can rest assured, with all the heat the Big 10 has taken, especially Ohio State, Tressel has been preparing for this game since walking off the field after a tough loss in the Fiesta Bowl against Texas.
Look for Prior to make a couple big plays in the 4th quarter and Ohio State wipes that smirk off Pete Carroll's face.
Ohio State +7

Stanford @ Wake Forest (-3)
The Cardinal are an up and coming team. Jim Harbaugh's team plays more like his roots in the Big-10 than the finesse of the Pac-10. They are a very physical, smash mouth type offense. I really feel as though Stanford will surprise some people in their league this year.
Wake lost a tough game to a very young, underrated Baylor team. Baylor coach Art Briles is one of the better coaches in the country you may have never heard of. The loss to Baylor will work in Wake's favor - Jim Grobe does not lose games like this after a loss. He will have the Deacons ready to play. Don't believe me? The Demon Deacons are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games following an against the spread loss. This game started out as a Pick and Wake is now a 3 point favorite. That is still not enough. Wake wins by a TD.
Wake Forest -3

Miss State (+14) @ Auburn
Gambling 101 in the SEC - Never, ever take a SEC team to cover when favored by double digits against a conference foe. NEVER. Auburn's offense surprised me last week. On top of that main statistic, Auburn is 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 SEC games and 2-9 against the spread overall.
I give Malzahn credit in making chicken salad out of chicken s--t. I know most of you may disagree, but I like him as an offensive coordinator, always have. He puts his players in a position to make plays. Unfortunately for Auburn, they do not have a whole hell of a lot of players.
I like Auburn to win this game, but Miss State will keep it close.
Miss State +14

Good Luck to all this weekend!

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